- Welcome to Forum.

I'm Mina Kim, Texas.

Democrats have left the state to delay a vote on a bill to redraw its voting maps and make it easier for Republicans to pick up five more seats in the midterms.

Ohio is also poised to redistrict to favor more Republicans.

Democrats are furious, including Governor Gavin Newsom, who is called for responding in kind and redrawing California's congressional districts to benefit more Democrats in 2026.

But it's a lot harder to do that here.

This hour we look at why and whether or not Democrats should, in these political times, engage in essentially a redistricting arms race.

What do you think listeners?

Joining me first is Laurel Rosenhall, who covers California politics and government for the New York Times.

Welcome to Forum Laurel.

- Thanks for having me.

Great to be here.

- So first, help us understand what's happening in Texas, why Democrats fled the state, what Texas's majority trying to do.

- Well, they're responding to a request from President Trump who asked the governor there in Texas to redraw the maps to help Republicans gain more seats, to make it more likely that voters would elect more Republicans by redrawing the boundaries of the, of the district lines.

So that's what their, the Republican majority in Texas is considering, and the Democrats left the state, or many of them left the state as a way to kind of boycott that plan.

They don't have enough votes.

Democrats don't have enough votes to stop it by voting no, but they could prevent the, the session from kind of moving forward temporarily by leaving the state.

They don't have a quorum if they don't have enough lawmakers there to do the vote.

So, so they have sort of fled for a few different states around the country and remains to be seen how long that will last and, and whether it will ultimately be successful.

In the past, in past years, Democrats in Texas have tried something similar and it basically delayed the redistricting vote, but it didn't stop it from happening.

- So that's how Democrats in Texas are responding.

Talk about how Gavin Newsom has responded to what Texas is trying to do.

- Yeah, so we've seen Newsom in the last couple of weeks really ramp up the discussion of this plan, which has now gone from talk to, you know, they're looking at draft maps and he's talking about putting this on the ballot.

I think the important thing to think about is that in many states like Texas, the legislature draws these maps, and so the legislature directly has the power.

Whichever party has the control of the legislature, has the, has the power to draw the maps in the way that they'd like.

In California and a handful of other states across the nation, the, the voters put that power in the hands of an independent commission, and the voters passed a, a constitutional amendment saying that maps should be drawn by this independent non-partisan commission, and that that should happen once a decade after the census is drawn.

And so in California, in order to, you know, effectively for Democrats to gerrymander as a way to counterbalance what's happening in Texas, it's just a lot more procedurally complicated and requires a lot more steps.

So Newsom is floating this plan to combat what Texas is doing with a California gerrymander, but his ability to just do it the way the Texas governor and the Texas legislature can is really hamstrung by all of these procedural requirements that that exist in California - And, and how many more seats does he think could potentially come from this?

I understand Democrats currently hold what, 43 of the states, 52 house seats.

- Newsom was asked about that yesterday, and he very pointedly did not say a number.

He said he's leaving it up to the lawmakers to, you know, to draw the maps.

He's not, he, he doesn't have a specific number in mind, but we understand that there are, there is a draft that's being considered right now that would have five new Democratic seats.

So five new Republican seats in Texas, five new Democratic seats in California.

- So he wants to sideline the independent commission, put this out to the voters in a special election, potentially November, if he can get these new maps drawn and everything and agreed to by the legislature.

How are Democrats responding to this in the state California Democrats?

- Many have expressed support.

Many are, many are kind of going along with this message that they feel that they need to fight fire with fire.

That if Republicans are going to gerrymander, then Democrats need to do the same.

There have been a, a couple of dissenters, but not, I have not so far seen widespread dissent.

It's worth noting that, again, back to my comment earlier about the procedural, the many procedural steps that would need to be taken, if California does this, it would involve, the legislature would have to vote, two thirds of the legislature would have to vote to put this on the ballot, and then a majority of voters would have to approve it.

So we will see later this month, this will likely come up in the legislature.

That's when we will see the real, they'll have to show their cards on, on their opinion.

But the state legislature is on summer recess right now.

They're, they're coming back on August 18th and it's looking like their, you know, action will be taken shortly after that.

Wow.

- You wrote about how former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is not a fan of this fight fire with fire plan that Governor Newsom has proposed.

If Texas in fact does succeed in moving forward with redrawing its maps to favor, Republicans talk about why he feels that way and why his voice is significant here.

- Yeah, so California's plan that that or the, the system that we have in California of independent redistricting was championed by Arnold Schwarzenegger when he was the governor of California.

You know, he had this idea of post-partisan politics.

He ran his administration in kind of a bipartisan manner, had republican staffers in his, in his, I'm sorry, had Democrat, he's a Republican.

He had Democrats in his administration and he saw a lot of gridlock in Sacramento with, between the two parties fighting.

That was in the era when the budget required a two thirds vote and was very hard for lawmakers in Sacramento to pass a budget.

And he really saw independent redistricting as a tool to kind of break politicians' control of politics and in his view, give more power to people.

It's a, the idea of independent redistricting is to make the districts more reflective of the voters in the communities and less reflective of politicians' wishes of, of, of who will win and who gets the political control.

So he put these measures on the ballot that California voters approved in 2008 and 2010.

He was a big champion for them.

He supported them.

And, and so the system that California has is really one of the legacies of Schwarzenegger's time as governor that reform, and then also the, the, the so-called top two primary, the non-partisan primary that California has.

Those are his, his babies.

He then, you know, after he left the governor's office, he became sort of an evangelist for this idea.

Like went to other states, campaigned in other states to pass similar efforts.

When the issue went before the Supreme Court, he was submitting amicus briefs to the Supreme Court about the idea of independent redistricting.

So even though Schwarzenegger is like an action movie star bodybuilder, you know, ator, he is actually like really into this kind of like nerdy, wonky idea of, of, of organizing democracy in a way that reflects the voters.

So he is, I think that he, you know, his spokesman made clear to me that that Schwarzenegger would, you know, not not be okay with his big legacy reform just getting trashed in California.

And so it remains, he Schwarzenegger himself has not come out yet and said anything, but, you know, he's, he is very opposed to Gerry gerrymandering by both parties.

His, his, he achieved something significant in getting California's system to change.

And it is reasonable to think that if, you know, California moves ahead with a plan that would trash part of his legacy, that he would have something to say about it.

Hmm.

So, - Yeah, I understand his spokesman also said that he felt that by doing partisan gerrymandering, similar as a response to Texas' gerrymandering that two wrongs don't make a right.

I wanna ask our listeners, toy in listeners, what do you think, would you support California redrawing its voting maps in favor of Democrats before the midterms to counter Texas and other GOP efforts to redistrict in favor of Republicans?

What questions or concerns do you have about the pro, the process of redrawing California's maps or the kind of impacts that would have?

You can email forum@kqbd.org, find us on discord, blue sky, Facebook, Instagram, or threads at KQ BD forum or call us at eight six six seven three three six seven eight six eight six six seven three three six seven eight six.

Along those lines of, you know, former Governor Schwarzenegger's concerns there, ha this has been called sort of like if we do this sort of tit for tat thing, almost like a race to the bottom, I'm wondering how Newsom or other democrats who have jumped on board counter that, like what are they saying about why it's needed?

- Newsom is really going big on the argument that Trump and the Republicans are trying to rig the election.

That's the phrase we've heard him use over and over again, and that if Democrats sit back and act holier than thou, that was another phrase that he used is that, you know, that, that that's just basically giving up power.

And, and, and so he, that he's really going with this, it's a firefight and he's saying that he thinks independent redistricting should be done.

You know, he likes the idea of independent redistricting and taking politicians out of, out of the control, but that it should be done nationwide because if states are doing it and only democratic states are doing it, then they're giving up power.

So that, that's been his argument.

The other thing to know is that what he's talked about publicly, and again, this has not been voted on by the legislature, so we don't know for certain what the final language will be of what, what goes on the ballot if there is a special election about this.

But what Newsom has said publicly is that the plan would call for this basically democratic gerrymandering, California for the next three congressional elections, 26, 28, and 30, and that the state would then return to the existing non-partisan system after the next census.

So when we get into the 2030s that allegedly we'd go back, - Laurel Rosenhall, who covers California politics and government for the New York Times, thanks so much for talking with us.

- Great to be here.

Thank you.

- We'll dig in more to how California could make this happen right after the break.

Stay with us listeners.

This is forum, I'm Mina Kim as Texas Republicans attempt to redraw maps to favor them in the 2026 midterms, California lawmakers are making plans of their own Governor Gavin Newsom says he wants to temporarily sideline California's independent redistricting commission and move forward with redrawing maps that would favor Democrats before the midterms.

We're talking with political reporters about what's at stake in this redistricting fight.

And with you, our listeners, would you support California redrawing its voting maps in favor of Democrats before the midterms?

What questions or concerns do you have about the process of redrawing California's maps now, or the impact it would have?

You can tell us at 8 6 6 7 3 3 6 7 8 6 by posting on our social channels at KQED forum or by emailing forum@kqeed.org.

And Steve on Discord writes, I'd be in favor of California writing standard standing legislation to gerrymander, depending on how other states behave, it doesn't make sense for us to subject ourselves to the whim of Congress if it's controlled by states who have unfairly gerrymandered their own districts.

The US is a purple nation, but the GOP is trying to turn its solid red on an electoral outcomes map.

Noel writes, gerrymandering is opposed by the majority of voters, and we want to protect our independent commissions.

Maybe those of us living in the California coast, don't wanna admit there are Republicans in other parts of the state, but they deserve representation as well.

Let me tell you who's joining us now.

Alexei Koseff is capital reporter with Cal Matters.

Alexei, so glad to have you with us.

- Hey there - Also with us is Erin Covey who leads the Cook Political Reports coverage of the US House of Representatives.

Erin, really glad to have you too.

- Yeah, thanks for having me on.

- So, Alexei, let me start with you.

Can you just give us a real quick sketch of what California's independent redistricting process, our current system, how it works?

- So this is actually relatively new in the history of California.

It's only been two district redistricting cycles that we've had.

This independent commission, it follows a long history of very, you know, contentious political drawing that was happening by the legislature of its own districts and of con congressional districts.

So finally in 2008, some political leaders put forward a ballot measure to voters asking them to approve this independent commission.

And in 2008, and then again in 2010, voters passed these ballot measures, putting it in the state constitution that we would have this independent system trying to pull it out of that politics and have a bipartisan group of citizens who would do the drawing rather than leaving it up to politicians to decide their own lines.

- Right.

So the commission now is half Republicans, half Democrats, right?

- Well, it's actually a third Democrats, a third Republicans and a third nonpartisan.

And so the idea is that you have voices from all across the political spectrum, right?

You're able to bring in those interests, balance each other out, draw lines that respect, you know, geographic communities, ethnic communities, other kinds of communities of interests that may wanna vote together and elect representatives who could, you know, represent their voice in Congress and also have, you know, a mix of partisan ideology of, of just recognizing the, the diversity of California and trying to have all of that within the districts - And, and it's popular, right?

Californians like it?

Alexei, - I mean as far as we can tell, you know, the very first ballot measure narrowly passed, but just two years later it was like a 60% vote of Californians for the second one that expanded the commission to cover congressional lines.

So just from the beginning people really latched onto the idea and it seems like ever since people have supported it and been happy to see California sort of rise above this political morass and become sort of a, an example for other states that have followed its lead and adopted their own commission.

- And Aaron, before the break, Laurel was saying that a lot of states actually have the legislatures redraw the map, so it tends to be a much more partisan process.

So independent commissions are still not as common as legislatures redrawing district boundaries.

How common is it for a redistricting process to occur between the taking of the census like in the middle of a decade?

- Yeah, that's a great question.

It is not common at all, particularly when we're seeing what Texas has done, which is that they have just unilaterally decided to redraw their congressional map in the middle of the decade.

Typically mid decade redistricting would occur when there is a court challenge to the preexisting map that was drawn at the beginning of the decade.

So this is really unprecedented.

We did see Texas do this back in 2003, which they were able to do successfully and they were able to use a new congressional map in the 2004 house elections to pick up five seats.

So there is some precedent for it, but it is quite rare.

- So then do you think Texas will succeed in redrawing its map this time around to favor maybe up to five more Republican seats or on the other side of it eliminating five currently democratically held seats?

- Yeah, so one advantage that I will say Republicans have nationwide is that in red states Republicans largely controlled the redistricting process as opposed to blue states like California, but also states like Washington and Colorado and New Jersey, they have seated their power to these independent commissions which draw more fair districts.

But they also give Democrats fewer opportunities to retaliate to Republicans in this scenario.

So in Texas, I think there is a very good chance Republicans will be successful in eventually enacting this map.

Obviously right now, Texas Democrats have fled the state to deny the legislature a quorum, which does delay the special session process.

But I do think that eventually Republicans will be successful here.

And then in terms of other states, republicans are also even looking at redistricting in states like Missouri and Indiana, if California is able to go through and also retaliate.

So this is really turning into, like you said earlier, an arms race situation.

However, the difficult thing for both Texas and California is there are deadlines.

We have to have elections next year at a certain point.

And so particularly in Texas, the filing deadline for candidates who are trying to run next year is in December.

So Republicans really need to get this done within the next couple of months.

- Hmm.

I wanna get into the very tight timeline that California would have to go down Alexei in a moment, especially since Governor Newsom was saying California would do this, if Texas moves forward, and Erin is saying that it is likely Texas will move forward.

But let me just take a couple calls.

Dawn in San Jose is on the line.

Dawn, you're on.

Go right ahead.

- Hi, thanks for taking my call.

I think this is a really interesting conversation.

I wanted to speak to the hypocrisy of the Republican party right now with, you know, governor Abbott doing this and then Newsom coming out, which is fine.

And then well, and Schwarzenegger coming and saying, this is all bad, bad, bad.

I'm like, dude, the G the GOP is not the GOP of 2008 anymore.

I am all for this independent commission, but we are not in that political environment anymore.

And I am of the fire with fire people because like the person from Santa Cruz who's Republicans, you know, they, they have a right to vote Republican, but the Democrats in Texas also have a vote, a right to their vote as well.

Hmm.

And you know, I just think we're not, it's not the same place anymore and I think we have to do it.

We can to protect everybody.

- Well Dawn, thanks so much for sharing your thoughts on this.

It sounds like Alexei, that if this comes to a ballot measure in November that Dawn would probably support it, but just walk us through very quickly sort of the headwinds that Newsom and the legislature faces in making this happen.

- Yeah, I mean this is a really fast moving scenario and they're sort of figuring this out as they go along because as you said, there's not a lot of time to do this.

California also has filing deadlines basically at the end of this year in order to, you know, get everything in place.

So what Newsom has proposed is to try and put a special call, a special election for the first week of November, aligning it with some local municipal elections that are already happening.

And in order to do that, you have to start backing it out and you need to leave at least 30 days for people to receive their mail ballots.

You need to leave another 15 days before that military and overseas people to start receiving their ballots.

So by that point, the ballots for this, you know, theoretical special election have to start going out in late September.

That leaves very little time for elections officials to pull this whole thing together.

So absolutely, you know, by the end of this month the legislature needs to act if there's any chance of pulling this off.

- And by needs to act, you mean also put forward the new map.

- You know, what they've talked about, again, this is still being kind of created as we're talking, but the idea they've talked about is not just putting forward the idea of sidelining the commission, but actually putting forward a new map and allowing the people of California to vote up or down on that map.

So we're gonna have here a situation where the legislature is drawing a new map, writing up language for what would go on the ballot, and probably passing that through as soon as they come back from their summer recess in a couple weeks.

And so we're looking at late August is likely when all of this is gonna happen very, very quickly in order to try and get it on the ballot.

- I know it's super early, but do you have any sense of which counties might be significantly affected by a redrawn map?

- I mean, you know, we, we don't know exactly what the map will look like, but we have some ideas because there are swing districts that Democrats would be trying to pick up in places like Orange County and the Central Valley places that have been these battlegrounds for the last couple cycles where they could try and push in more democratic voters and make them solidly blue rather than purple swing districts.

And so that means that you're probably pulling out, you know, re Republican representatives who currently exist in like the Fresno area, like David Valadao, who's a constant target for Democrats or someone like Darrell Issa who is in the Southern Orange County, Northern San Diego County area, people like that who are in these kind of swingy districts.

Democrats have never really been able to take them out and now's their chance by redrawing these maps to throw a bunch more democratic voters in those districts and you know, flip them from Republican to Democrat.

- Again, we're talking with Alexei Costa, capital reporter with Cal Matters and Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report where she covers the US House of Representatives.

And we're talking with you, our listeners.

Let me go next to Clara in Salinas.

Hi Clara, you're on.

- Hi, I'm a democratic voter.

My, but my grandfather was a Republican state representative from Oakland, Piedmont.

His grandfather was a Democratic representative from Plumas.

And so my family swung back and forth and my thoughts are that this commission is, was actually a way to boost Republican power and suspending it for three times to fight fire with fire is a perfectly reasonable response to today's politics.

- Wow.

- So I'm all for it.

- Well Clara, thanks so much.

And then we have Kevin on Discord saying I am a lifelong Democrat who canvased for McGovern in 1972.

I'm proud of our independent redistricting commission and I do not want to go back to gerrymandering.

If my assembly and state senate representatives vote to put it on the ballot, I would vote against them in 2026.

Kyle writes, I absolutely support this redrawing of lines.

I'm sick and tired of Democrats rolling over and taking it.

It's time to stop being the nice guy.

We will never win if we just concede without a fight.

And Jeff writes, I'm so disappointed that Governor Newsom wants to fight Texas with gerrymandering.

California voters have already voted on this and it's now part of the constitution.

California's doing the right thing.

Current Texas Democratic lawmakers are calling for the system.

California now has, this is one high road California has to lead the nation on.

So Aaron, let's say California legislature manages to do all this, the voters also approve it.

Right.

What do you think the biggest challenges California will face in terms of the national picture?

Because it's not just Texas, right?

That is trying to redraw maps in favor of Republicans.

- Yes, that's correct.

And I think the challenge is that if this really turns into kind of an all-out redistricting war, Republicans are operating from a stronger standpoint than Democrats because Republicans do fully control the redistricting process in places like Missouri, Indiana, Florida, New Hampshire, there are a number of other red states where folks have talked about potentially redrawing those lines as well.

I mean, we're seeing that Vice President Vance is thinking about going out to Indiana himself this week.

And I think this is just really an indication of how willing the White House and Trump is willing to go in order to retain control of the house next year, because Republicans only have a three seat majority right now.

And obviously what we've seen historically is that for the most part, the party out of power.

So Democrats in this case would pick up seats in a midterm cycle, but Trump does not want to deal with the potential impeachments and investigations that he would face if Democrats had control of the house.

And so he is doing everything he can to help Republicans maintain their control next year.

And that is a big difference from 2018 where we saw Trump was largely kind of took a backseat from the midterm cycle.

- Yeah, and you touched on this a little bit, but states where Democrats control the redistricting process in a democratically led legislature, like what are they doing?

Can they counter effectively?

- Yeah, that's a good question.

So there are states like this, but Democrats have already maxed out, I think a lot of their gains in these states.

So for example, Illinois Democrats already control 14 out of those 17 districts.

So they already have a pretty gerrymandered map.

They could maybe pick up one or two, and we may see governor and JB Pritzker try to push for that.

He's certainly hosting a lot of the Texas Democrats right now who have fled the state, but there's just more limited opportunities there.

We can also see Democrats could try to pick up a seat in Maryland, but again, that's just one seat.

And in other blue states like Washington and Colorado and New Jersey and New York, it is a lot more difficult for them to actually redraw their maps.

New York is the state that I hear the most about recently, and I know Governor Kathy Hochul has talked about redrawing that map, but they have a lot of barriers to actually amending their constitution and they have their own restrictions on redistricting as well.

- Well, Urich writes, Trump and MAGA have shown no reluctance to cheat, expecting to win an unfair fight is foolhardy.

2026 may be our last chance to effectively save democracy in the us.

I support nuisance proposal with some caveats.

It needs to be said over and over that it is a response to Trump and Texas and it should sunset after a certain amount of time.

Aaron, could you just talk about the impacts of extreme, you know, partisan gerrymandering on voters in these states?

- Yeah, so ultimately politicians from both parties want to protect the power that they have.

And so that's why we see red states and blue states, they both gerrymandered when they control the process.

It's just that Republicans control more states.

And so we see it a little bit more on the Republican side, but there's obviously an incentive for politicians to make it easier for them to win reelection every two years.

And the way that affects voters is that there are fewer and fewer voters who actually live in competitive districts and even in districts where say 40% of the population is Republican or Democrat, but the other 60% votes the other way, those 40%, they're not going to have representation in Congress because the seat is safe enough for the other party to win time and time again.

So what we saw in places like California is that part of the move towards independent redistricting commissions has been to encourage more competitive districts, which is obviously healthy for the parties and is healthy for democracy.

But if politicians are fully controlling the process, they're always gonna make it easier, want to make it easier for them to maintain their power.

- Yeah, certainly Republicans have felt that they are not represented in our state effectively or in Congress with regard to how blue the districts are here.

We're coming up on a break, Alexei, but I just do wanna ask you any gains that California makes could potentially be relatively short-lived, given the fact that, you know, there is talk that California could lose as many as four congressional seats by the 2030 census, - Right?

I mean all of this is, you know, a pretty short term thing regardless, because in after the 2030 census, every state is gonna have to redraw their maps again.

And that is a very difficult future that Democrats are looking at.

States like Texas and Florida are projected to pick up, you know, three or four seats each simply because of the fast growth there.

While the biggest democratic states like California and New York are projected, lose three or four seats each.

So this map is headed toward a future where it's tilting more and more toward Republican power unless there is some sort of, you know, realignment of, of you know, political ideology as we, you know, as we've seen under Trump.

So yeah, this is, this is sort of a temporary solution to a longer term problem that Democrats face of, you know, they're losing population in the places where they have the most political power.

- We're talking about the ever to redraw congressional district maps ahead of the 2026 election, what Texas Republicans are doing and what California Democrats are saying they're going to do to respond to it with Alexei Casa Capital reported with Cal Matters.

And Erin Covey, the Cook Political Reports lead reporter on the US House of Representatives.

And with you, our listeners, stay with us for more after the break.

You're listening to Forum, I'm Mina Kim, you're listening to Forum.

I'm Mina Kim.

Republican leaders are under pressure from Trump to help shore up a narrow GOP majority in Congress ahead of a potentially challenging midterm election.

Listeners, would you support California redrawing its voting maps in favor of Democrats before the midterms to counter Texas and the president's efforts to redistrict in favor of Republicans?

What questions or concerns do you have about the process and its impacts?

Email forum@kqe.org?

Find us on discord, bluesky, Facebook, Instagram.

We're at K QE forum, call us at eight six six seven three three six seven eight six eight six six seven three three six seven eight six.

And let me go to caller Chris in Santa Clara.

Hi Chris, you're on.

- Hi.

You know, I think the part of the discussion that's so key is really about numbers.

The percentages of passing this on the ballot in November.

You know, the polling data that was shared with the state legislature this past weekend says that there's 52% of voters on the first pass for polling that seem to be in favor of this.

But for any of us who've ever served on a school board or a city council, if you're gonna place a bond measure and you have only a 2% cushion, you are never going forward if that's where you are at the very beginning because you're always gonna bleed some percentages.

And so I think the real discussion is that, is it worthwhile to go forward with this ballot measure when there's a very high chance that it's gonna fail and embolden the Republicans and MAGA in California?

Because I mean, as is right now, we can pick up three seats.

Calvert, Kim, and Val, highly vulnerable.

And I think your cook report reporter or guest would agree, we can go already right now from 43 9 to 46 6, we gamble with this.

We may not get anything at the end of the day, so I'm curious what people think.

- Yeah, well Chris, thanks for that.

Aaron, do you think he's right that this would be fodder for Republicans, this would really help Republicans if the ballot measure fails?

- Yeah, I mean, I think so, and I think he's right in that a majority of Californians still want to support an independent redistricting commission process.

I think the question is whether or not Newsom and other Democrats are able to convince enough voters in California to temporarily put that aside for a cycle in retaliation to Republicans.

But I do think it's certainly a mixed bag on whether or not this ballot measure would actually pass in the state.

There hasn't been a ton of polling yet on this, but I know we're gonna see more over the coming months and I'll be curious what that looks like.

But yes, that's correct.

There's also only already three seats that Democrats could pick up next year under the current map, - And perhaps some of those resources are better spent on those campaigns.

But, but Erin, can you talk about what the other options are?

Are there really no other really good options to counter what Texas, for example, is doing then by redrawing our maps to favor Democrats?

- I mean there really aren't, again, you have states like Illinois where you can maybe in a really aggressive map pick up one or two currency.

- Yeah, sure.

I guess what I mean is like extreme partisan gerrymandering is still technically illegal, right?

I mean, would a court challenge be able to address some of this or is that unlikely given the way that, you know, our, our court system has gone, or our highest courts have gone around the issue of gerrymandering?

- Yeah, so I mean it depends on the state because in states like Texas partisan gerrymandering actually is perfectly legal.

What's illegal at the federal level is racial gerrymandering, which Republicans could run into some issues with that in Texas for sure.

Yeah, so I think that that's really the issue here is that there are fewer constraints, I think, on the process than voters would assume.

- And give me a quick sense of what you think will happen Alexei, as sort of a California temperature check.

I hear from our listeners that they are against it and also like if there is any political time to do this, it's now.

So what do you think could happen with this ballot measure if it gets there?

- Yeah, I mean it, it's really interesting to have those first polling numbers that we've seen that show this sort of, you know, tepid majority, but a majority nonetheless.

I mean, I have, you know, I would've said a month, a month and a half ago, there's no way this thing even moves forward and suddenly we're hurdling toward a likelihood that this is on the ballot.

I think a lot of people are still coming around to the idea of this even being a real thing, but a lot of democrats are very angry and they are coming around to it.

And so, you know, yes there's a chance it could fail, but there's also a chance that with the right messaging you bring a very angry democratic electorate behind you and it passes.

So I, you know, I think we're still in this weird novel unformed moment where people are figuring out what's going on and it's still hard to know what that means for its actual chances in November.

- Let me go to call her Cassie in San Francisco next.

Hi Cassie, join us.

You're on.

- Hi.

I just wanna say that I'm all for getting dirty and redrawing.

I mean, I just don't understand why we have to even keep the college electoral as an African American who's half African American, born in Europe, you know, holding two passports.

I'm scared every single day and I feel that this Trump and his monster regime has to go.

I mean, I'm devastated daily watching what he is doing to immigrants.

- Oh, Cassie, thank you for sharing the way that you're feeling about this.

Also, you know, deeply personally as well.

It sounds like Alexei, we talked a little bit earlier with Laurel about how, you know, governor Schwarzenegger is against this former governor, Schwarzenegger would likely be against this.

He's sort of signaling that he might be a voice in opposition.

- He's going pretty strongly - Yeah, that that that's where he would go.

Can you talk about what other Republicans are doing?

I understand representative Kevin, Kylie is trying to halt this process as well.

- Yeah, I mean that's a really interesting wrinkle.

Now, you know, the political parties were not really in favor of this idea in the beginning because it took away power from them.

And suddenly you have this situation now where you've got the Republican party coming out and defending the independent redistricting process in California because they know they'll get blown away essentially, you know, off the map if Democrats go through with this.

So now you have Kevin Kylie, who's a representative from he, he represents a big district that sort of runs along the eastern part of California from the north all the way down to the south.

And he has put forward this idea of banning mid de, mid decade redistricting nationwide.

And you know, this doesn't seem like I had an idea that's likely to go anywhere, but he's a surprising voice now to say, you know, California shouldn't be doing this.

Texas shouldn't be doing this, nobody should be doing this because it's a race to the bottom now.

He hasn't put it in those words.

Exactly.

He's mostly just criticized Gavin Newsom as, as he loves to do and has kind of left Texas out of it.

But he is probably gonna lose his job if this happens.

And so he's now trying to sort of, you know, be one of those people maybe pushing the brakes a little bit on, on this arms race as you've put it.

- Yeah.

Well we have a clip of representative Kylie here explaining why he is pursuing this legislation.

- I don't think it's a good thing, regardless of which state is doing it, whether it's a red state or a blue state.

I think that constantly shifting around district lines based upon when you think is, it's politically convenient, it's a really unhealthy thing for democracy.

- Do you think that Kylie's stance in the House of Representatives as a Republican Erin will have any ripple effect?

- I really don't think so.

And that's because this ultimately was started by Trump who is trying to pick up or keep Republicans from losing house seats next year.

And so I don't see a world in which speaker Mike Johnson is gonna want to bring legislation like this to the floor.

And I think there's also a lot of Republicans who don't even, even though in Texas I think a lot of Republican incumbents were initially wary of having the map redrawn, I think they've all come around to it if it means they can keep the house.

And so it doesn't really make sense that republicans who have a majority in the house wanna bring up a bill like this if it only hinders them.

- And Aaron, what do you read into how engaged or involved or how much President Trump is pushing for this type of redrawing of congressional maps in his favor?

The fact that he really feels the need to be insulated during these midterm elections?

- Yeah, he is incredibly involved in this process and it was driven by him from the beginning.

This was not something that was driven by Republicans in the Texas state legislature or even Republican members of Congress in Texas themselves.

It was driven by the White House in an attempt to try to protect, protect their incredibly narrow majority.

And I do think that, you know, there is a world in which if Republicans are able to pick up several more seats through redistricting alone than Democrats, that they could hold the house next year.

And so this is really what the 2026 fight has come down to at this point.

And I think that's why we're seeing so many Democrats like Newsom do a total 180 on these independent commissions that previously Democrats have largely supported.

- Listeners are sharing their thoughts.

Rishi writes, is there a chance that Democrats will figure out how to talk to diverse voters to understand their hopes and concerns, craft sensible policies and flip these new marginal red districts?

Another listener on Blue sky writes, how would we get back from this if we go down this path?

We build in an exit strategy that the legislature can't screw with based on the state every districting law and other states or federally.

We did talk about, of course, that this is something that Newsom wants to do temporarily.

Michael all blue sky writes, I suspect this is merely another way for Newsom to keep his name in the national headlines, to promote his presidential pursuits.

What do you think, Alexei?

- You know, I, I would've said again, I would've said a month ago, six, six weeks ago that yes, this is absolutely a way for Newsom to be out there as that democratic fighter.

That's the branding he's really used to build this national profile and boost himself in this, in his, you know, presidential ambitions.

But this is actually getting very serious.

The legislature has met and talked about it.

They are working on language, they are working on maps.

The plan is to do this basically the first week.

They're back from their summer recess in a couple of weeks.

And so we are barreling toward this likely being on the ballot in November.

And, and it's very, very real.

- Paula writes, I think we have no choice but to counter the Texas redistricting as long as the new district sunset and we resume citizen nonpartisan districts.

I hope all blue states do likewise, Trump and the Republicans are attempting to make the US an authoritarian nation.

We are in the fight for the soul of our country.

Paula hopes that this is something that other blue states do as well with regard to adopting independent commissions, maybe after redrawing their maps to favor Democrats even more.

Aaron, earlier, you know, there was mention that Newsom says, oh, he would support, you know, independent commissions if that was national or if there are national laws around this.

I mean, is there any scenario where this Congress sets national redistricting standards or that we see national redistricting standards at all?

Erin?

- Not really, no.

If we're, if we continue to exist under a scenario where the country is pretty evenly divided and control of Congress flips between the two parties every cycle, I don't see a world where there would be enough of a majority for politicians from the party in the majority to essentially limit some of their own power in the interest of fair maps.

So that does seem really unlikely.

And I'll say even in New York, they have a bi, a bipartisan commission currently for redistricting and they have, there's Democrats who have introduced bills to get rid of that entirely.

So I'm really curious going forward, even if California keeps its independent commission after this, will other states move away from that?

Will it be more likely to pass in other blue states?

I'm not sure.

- Well, let me remind listeners, you are listening to Forum.

I'm Mina Kim.

We're talking with Erin Covey who leads the Cook Political Reports coverage of the US House of Representatives and Alexei Casa, capital reporter with Cal Matters.

Earlier we were joined by Laura Rosenhall who covers California politics and government for the New York Times.

And lemme go to caller Paul in San Francisco.

Hi Paul, thanks for waiting.

You're on.

- Yes, yes, thank you.

I really think it's unfortunate that we elect politicians and we don't elect statesmen instead of berating the will of the people of California, I think Governor Newton should use his national presence and try to actually encourage the Democrats to have a policy to have policies and platforms that actually do not alienate the voters, but actually encourage voters to vote for the Democrats instead with this backdoor abrogation of the, of the will of voters.

- Well Paul, thanks for sharing that.

Appreciate you calling in.

Let me go next to Frank in Petaluma.

Hi Frank, join us.

You're on.

- Hi, good morning.

Thank you for taking my call.

I, you know, I'm, I'm not that in favor of this unless it's the worst case scenario.

I don't think we should be doing it soon because it will incite Republican states to, if they are on the fence to gerrymander and then celebrate it.

I think if I were to give Governor Newsom any advice, it would be grow the state, grow the state as an economic success, invite manufacturers here and enjoy the wealth that's created.

I think the biggest mistake we made as Democrats was ignoring economics.

If we bring back some manufacturing as part of a diverse economic portfolio, I don't think we need to worry about the cost of a - Well Frank, appreciate hearing from you as well, Aaron.

There's a couple things that Frank said that I think are interesting.

One very quickly is, you touched on this what other red states could potentially do, and you mentioned a few of them.

Do you know of any active efforts right now or discussions right now in some of these red states to try to counter and, and again, you know, sort of this arms race that then will develop?

- It sounds like there are active conversations happening and efforts to counter this in places like Florida, which is obviously a pretty big state and so Republicans could pick up a couple more districts there and places like Indiana and Missouri, those are smaller states, so Republicans could maybe pick up one seat from each state, but there are definitely talks happening to counteract what's happening in California right now.

- The other question I had, you know, from what Frank was saying is how powerful of a guarantee is gerrymandering, right?

I mean there is something to be said about a really dynamic candidate who's able to sway even a district that is not of their political party or other factors, right?

Frank was mentioning the economy.

- Yeah, I mean candidates still matter at the house level, particularly in these really competitive elections where it's decided by slim margins.

But I think also it is really hard to anticipate how political parties, parties change over the next several years.

And you know, we don't know how Democrats and Republicans are gonna do in different parts of the country going forward.

Folks didn't expect Trump to do as well as he did with Hispanic voters and Asian American voters across the country.

And that obviously also had unintended consequences.

Republicans weren't expecting Democrats to make the gains they made in the suburbs during Trump's first term.

And so while it may look like you're drawing a helpful map for your party right now, that could backfire in a couple of years or several years.

- Alex, I see you nodding.

Is there anything you wanna add?

- I think, you know, the counter to that is gerrymandering can be safer than betting on, you know, political history, right?

There's an assumption here that Democrats will do better next year because they're the opposition party.

And opposition parties tend to do better in midterms, but who knows, right?

I mean, maybe Trump will see great policy successes and voters will rally behind him and Democrats will actually lose some of the swing districts in California that they've gained in the last few years.

You know, there's seats like Adam Gray, which is in the Modesto area.

He won that by maybe 500 votes in November.

So Democrats are also on the defense here in California.

And I think some of their thinking here is it's safer to try and draw these, you know, gerrymandered districts, you know, make that political bet that next year is gonna be a good year for them.

So, you know, we'll see, we'll see how it all shakes out in the next couple weeks.

But you know, there's sort of those arguments on both sides.

- Yeah, there is so much happening right now.

Well, a couple of final comments, rich writes, you cannot decry the tactics being used in Texas and then try to do the same thing here without being a hypocrite that seems to fit Newsom just fine.

The solution is to run good candidates who can win, not to play games with the lines.

Paul writes, two wrongs may not make a right, but one wrong doesn't make a right either.

And the wrong the Republicans are attempting will lead to loss of more rights in the future.

Alex Koseff, capital reporter with Cal Matters, thanks so much for being with us.

- Thank you for having me on.

- Erin Covey, so appreciate your analysis too.

Erin, who leads the Cook Political Reports coverage of the US House.

Thanks so much.

- Yeah, thank you for having me on - And my thanks as always to listeners who weigh in, pay such close attention and add so much to our conversations.

You have been listening to Forum.

I'm Mina Kim.